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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1745

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 21 03:59:21 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 210358
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210358=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-210530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1745
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1058 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

    Areas affected...Southeast Montana/southern North Dakota/northern
    South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531...534...

    Valid 210358Z - 210530Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531, 534
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe wind/hail potential continues through late evening
    and possibly into the overnight from southeast Montana across
    southern North Dakota and northern South Dakota. Severe Thunderstorm
    Watches 531/534 continue, and the southern North Dakota/northern
    South Dakota border vicinity is being monitored for a possible
    additional Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple storm clusters with a history of
    severe-caliber winds and/or hail persist from far southeast Montana
    (Carter County) to near the North Dakota/South Dakota border
    vicinity as of 1050pm CDT/950pm MDT. Steady boundary-layer cooling
    has occurred over the past couple of hours, and storms should ingest increasingly elevated inflow over the next few hours. However,
    existing storm organization and modest low-level jet influence
    should tend to sustain storms east-southeastward along the regional
    instability gradient. At least some severe-caliber wind/hail
    potential will probably continue into the overnight, and potentially
    into areas to the east of the current Watches 531/534 across far
    southern North Dakota and northern South Dakota.

    ..Guyer.. 07/21/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7uWLd-adKqCtcFbXJRDF4V3GM04J772MWkCsygpyw0BX0-wQSvWGXItu-hyxpc0wchISWEdiF= KHtZQ81oYojJXfO8iw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

    LAT...LON 45740506 46320426 46700255 46780055 45899863 44999936
    44950195 45090437 45740506=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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