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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1744

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 21 00:57:30 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 210056
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210055=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-210230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1744
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0755 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

    Areas affected...Southeast Montana/Southwest North Dakota and far
    northwest South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531...

    Valid 210055Z - 210230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Potential for large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts
    will continue across southeast Montana and southwest North Dakota,
    and possibly into far northwest South Dakota.

    DISCUSSION...A few isolated supercells persist as of 750pm CDT/650pm
    MDT particularly across southwest North Dakota within the primary
    instability axis, while other clusters of storms have begun to
    evolve and organize across southeast Montana south of I-94 and
    near/east of I-90. Miles City, MT measured a 59 kt/68 mph wind gust
    around 550pm MDT, while Big Horn County Airport more recently
    measured a 75 mph gust. While episodic large hail will continue
    regionally, severe-wind potential should somewhat focus across far
    southeast Montana into far southwest North Dakota (potentially
    including the Baker and Bowman areas), and possibly into far
    northwest South Dakota over the next few hours as additional cell mergers/upscale growth likely occurs.

    ..Guyer.. 07/21/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4uOkI27FRXjmOlVuK3M19_PR6BWFq3Vmq9OYhJwFIcvO-RswsOk-glAewcjDK8S_Ban6co4Y1= M-CHZDdYwQ00uSSZzc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 45830756 46930693 47140365 46560172 45790135 45470201
    45170575 45830756=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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