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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1743

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 21 00:38:47 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 210038
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210038=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-210145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1743
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0738 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

    Areas affected...South-central South Dakota/north-central Nebraska

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 532...

    Valid 210038Z - 210145Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 532 continues.

    SUMMARY...A relatively focused potential for large hail and a
    tornado continues with supercells across south-central South Dakota
    and north-central Nebraska, centered on Todd County, South Dakota
    and eastern Cherry County, Nebraska.

    DISCUSSION...After storm mergers, an intense supercell with history
    of baseball-size hail continues to approach the South
    Dakota/Nebraska border vicinity in Todd County, SD as of 730pm CDT, approximately 15-20 miles northwest of Valentine, NE. Continued south-southeastward storm persistence seems likely into Cherry
    County, potentially including the immediate Valentine vicinity.
    Other severe storms persist farther south in Cherry County, with
    other splitting supercells near/north of I-90 east of Phillip, SD.=20

    The ambient environment remains rather moist with near 70F surface
    dewpoints, with some strengthening of storm
    propagation/sustenance-favorable southeasterly winds within the
    boundary layer. Large hail and some tornado potential will likely
    persist for a couple more hours as storms/right-moving supercells
    persist slowly southeastward within the instability axis. Recent
    WSR-88D VWP data from North Platte substantiates at least 150 m2/s2
    0-1 km SRH, with some additional increase expected over the next
    hour or two.

    ..Guyer.. 07/21/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Nun7_b6S864GZKTU7oLk_KNQxZw18FmsanWZ2L-kvG6C1aNbhDymwVvwGZaBhS2R2AUvSj9j= F-P4qYlABqD_OekSdQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 44140144 44360089 43420043 42980019 42419976 42100003
    42230134 43130138 44140144=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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