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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1742

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 21 00:37:14 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 210037
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210036=20
    KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-210200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1742
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0736 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of southern IL/IN into northern KY

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533...

    Valid 210036Z - 210200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado remain possible
    this evening.

    DISCUSSION...A compact bowing segment has developed and is moving
    into southwest IN as of 0030 UTC. This bowing segment is moving
    quickly east-southeastward along a surface boundary and instability
    gradient, and will pose a threat of at least localized wind damage
    for as long as it persists this evening.=20=20

    Other semi-discrete convection has developed both ahead of this
    bowing cluster, and in its wake across south-central IL. With MLCAPE
    of 1500-2500 J/kg and effective shear of 25-35 kt, organized
    convection will remain possible through the evening, including
    potential for occasional supercell structures. Warm temperatures
    aloft and weak midlevel lapse rates may tend to limit the magnitude
    of the severe threat to some extent, but locally damaging wind and
    perhaps a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any persistent
    discrete cells. Any additional upscale-growing clusters could pose a
    threat for more concentrated wind damage, though in the absence of
    stronger low-level flow, this potential is uncertain.

    ..Dean.. 07/21/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_VtWL6vMMs586rvRfRjbXZRwVmHJUP0mVWsGa4MuD661ZC3qnqIZygWG20XH7knfm1iAMAEfL= 6EGPBQEJfBOjEq7IVI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 39638955 39298730 38998516 38918419 38498364 38188446
    37938546 38108677 38278806 38598936 39178943 39638955=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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