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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1740

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 20 21:53:19 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 202153
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202152=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-202345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1740
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0452 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

    Areas affected...Central Illinois into southern Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 202152Z - 202345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A cluster of storms that has recently developed and
    intensified in central Illinois may pose some risk for damaging
    winds. It is not clear how far this cluster will move southeast or
    how intense it will be. A watch is possible, but it will depend on
    convective trends in the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...Despite lingering cloud cover strong heating south of a
    stationary font along with perhaps subtle aid from a passing MCV has
    promote storm development in central Illinois. The stronger
    effective shear is north of the boundary, but 25-30 kts south of the
    boundary may be sufficient for modest storm organization. The
    question remains how far southeast this storm cluster can persist.
    Temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F along with mid/upper 70s
    F dewpoints will provide buoyant inflow and the boundary will
    provide some focus for propagation. Even with these positive
    factors, large scale ascent is weak as are mid-level lapse rates.
    The need for a watch is not immediately clear, but convective trends
    will be monitored over the next couple of hours.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/20/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_45I3pmj0fz1m0nC_-IUUDfwg8ge5IMLWl8jLHiOOs2k5bnD53g-KR1UC7W6-hSAYaYi66Q_6= qWHKsePOOByBwmwLw0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 39248935 39558929 39738915 39808844 39648755 39228558
    38628571 38328643 38408756 38948900 39248935=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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