ACUS11 KWNS 202145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202145=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-202315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1739
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Areas affected...Eastern MT/far northeast WY/western ND/western SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 202145Z - 202315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase initially
across east/southeast Montana and possibly far northeast Wyoming
into the far western Dakotas through early evening.

DISCUSSION...Storms have shown recent signs of intensification
within a semi-moist/moderately unstable corridor from east-central
Montana into southwest North Dakota, with additional towering cu
noted in visible satellite imagery across southeast Montana. The
region is being influenced by a shortwave trough over
Alberta/Saskatchewan and a related belt of low-amplitude westerlies, contributing to 40+ kt effective shear. Scenario will support at
least isolated severe storm development including some initial
supercells with the potential for large hail and severe-caliber wind
gusts. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible Watch.

..Guyer/Hart.. 07/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-n7ozx-6-rMSz4cVOwFnD0P9FVvWGoZquEEok5dfpPYIMMG36McdM1SGDiAZV8AjNHN1p0t_k= UNfK3XLb5WGtetLEAQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 47570601 47840329 47310175 45600136 44770222 44560357
44620665 46370753 47570601=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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