ACUS11 KWNS 200440
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200439=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-200645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1733
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Southern Iowa...extreme northeast
Missouri...west-central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 200439Z - 200645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A small cluster of thunderstorms will pose a risk for
isolated large hail and strong wind gusts. Should these storms show
signs of becoming better organized, then watch issuance would be
possible.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms has recently
intensified over south-central Iowa in the vicinity of an east-west
frontal boundary. Latest objective analysis shows this area within a
zone of low-level warm advection, and also within the right entrance
region of an upper-level jet maximum. Strong instability (MUCAPE in
excess of 2500 J/kg) and around 40 kts of westerly shear will
provide a favorable environment for some continued severe hail and
wind threat, with some non-zero tornado potential in the vicinity of
the boundary. The primary uncertainty is the degree of organization
that would result in more than an isolated severe threat. Latest
hi-res guidance remains varied regarding near-term forecasts for
these storms, although the potential does exist for increased
organization over the next few hours. Were this to occur, then watch
issuance would be possible.

Convective trends will be monitored closely.

..Bunting/Hart.. 07/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!49S3zdbcYHPJZGwNuY7Fd0MckCVv_exDXgoZqWanpUQOr03aObjw8updaDrSlMOuazBmOxXts= jOkpuslAuWDF2N_cP4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 40989426 41229306 41189216 40949158 40719122 40539107
40309107 40259185 40319296 40449388 40789428 40989426=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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