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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1731

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 20 02:10:35 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 200210
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 200210=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-200415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1731
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0910 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

    Areas affected...Central and eastern Nebraska/Kansas Border Region

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 529...

    Valid 200210Z - 200415Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 529
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe/damaging winds are possible along the
    Nebraska/Kansas border over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...A small bowing segment has developed from an earlier
    supercell and is moving east just west of Blue Hill. This has shown
    a stronger wind signal from KUEX velocity data with a small region
    of 60-70 kts at about 1500 ft. Measured gusts of 60-70 mph have
    occurred with this storm over the last hour. With the increase in
    the low-level jet this evening, additional storms have also develop
    ahead of and to the south of this storm. Severe/damaging winds are
    the primary hazard this evening, particularly with the storm west of
    Blue Hill. The downstream environment remains favorable with 40 kts
    of effective shear and 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. However, MLCIN is also
    increasing. Another 2-3 hours of strong to severe storms appear
    possible. Whether additional watches will be needed into southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas is not clear.

    ..Wendt.. 07/20/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5aIlra86JxgDQ8GWMK6LEISTY_52pWGeqP7TqcIk7PeYye2LdU42s3bq0sQW5NG41p6F6UPyH= UFGq9nMTl2P4xX_-1U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39380000 40529930 40719750 40419670 39779662 39429758
    39359884 39380000=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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