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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1725

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 19 21:49:41 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 192149
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192149=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-192345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1725
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0449 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

    Areas affected...Far east-central Colorado...northwest Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 192149Z - 192345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind gusts are possible with a
    couple of clusters of supercells moving into/through northwest
    Kansas. A watch is possible should convective trends warrant.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have developed in far eastern Colorado along a
    weak surface trough/dryline. Strong surface heating has promoted
    2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear increases with northern extent near the Kansas/Nebraska border. The overall environment will support at
    least isolated large hail and severe wind gusts this afternoon.

    The need for a watch is uncertain in this scenario. Large-scale
    ascent is quite weak and dewpoint spreads at the surface are rather
    large. This may lead to generally outflow dominant storms that are
    intense for a short period. This is evident in KGLD radar imagery
    with storms along and south of I-70. Storms near the Nebraska border
    may be more organized for longer given the greater effective shear
    (approaching 40-45 kts). The probability of a watch is slightly
    higher there for that reason. Convective trends will need to be
    monitored over the next couple of hours.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/19/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!68C5nkBmtzQyaPOJvRU5dlVedvhJ2NmnfAHnfp70zKFsj3MGkIDmW1LLZbO6eZyDuV3pr269z= 8U-w4o3l2NgNevweiI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

    LAT...LON 39090008 38500086 38200187 38360239 38890277 39340289
    39770229 40120153 40250010 39919984 39090008=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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