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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1724

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 19 20:47:17 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 192046
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192046=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-192245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1724
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0346 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of the northern High Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 192046Z - 192245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity is
    expected through late afternoon. The primary concerns will be large
    hail and severe wind gusts. A watch should eventually be needed for
    parts of the area.

    DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus is gradually deepening along the
    northern High Plains this afternoon, where low-level lapse rates
    continue to steepen ahead of an approaching midlevel trough. Over
    the next several hours, weak midlevel height falls and continued
    diurnal heating should support widely scattered thunderstorms which
    will spread eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass.
    Around 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and
    organized clusters, capable of producing large to very large hail
    and severe gusts. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out with any
    supercells that evolve over eastern MT into this evening, given
    sufficient low-level hodograph curvature. Generally weak large-scale
    forcing for ascent and lingering low-level inhibition cast
    uncertainty on timing of convective development/maturation, though
    current thinking is a watch will eventually be needed for parts of
    the area.

    ..Weinman/Smith.. 07/19/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9xwRS9o5Nm071KBPBoq-AmXEEUWdkr57fJBSN2NiLRIJTW_yCjaFq5Js-py26rB95h_wEeFUu= -5Nk6GiuiDRSR5673M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 43200293 43100352 43160400 43570466 44550579 46720726
    47690780 48420792 48960766 49070729 49090504 48970465
    48440418 43660252 43200293=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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