ACUS11 KWNS 192021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192021=20
VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-192215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1722
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Virginia and far northeast North Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526...

Valid 192021Z - 192215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging/severe winds will become
increasingly concentrated across eastern Virginia over the next
several hours.

DISCUSSION...A mixture of semi-discrete cells and convective
clusters continue to evolve across central VA and northern NC, and
have a history of sporadic wind damage and small hail. Recent GOES
IR imagery and MRMS vertically integrated liquid/echo top data
continue to show transient, but intense, convective cores developing
across the region as storms move into, or develop within, a very
buoyant environment. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates suggest
MLCAPE has increased to 2000-3000 J/kg across eastern VA as
temperatures climb into the upper 80s and low 90s with low-level
lapse rates between 7-7.5 C/km. The trajectories of ongoing cells
and clusters suggests that storm interactions/convergence will
become increasingly likely across eastern VA within this CAPE
maximum over the next several hours. As this occurs, the favorable thermodynamic environment should support an uptick in storm coverage
along with increasing probability for damaging downburst winds and
perhaps small hail.

..Moore.. 07/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-EzshdrdAtxHGa84eKayQ3oGQXEa7GTX2yfHLN9z49vmVZXkn_GmZoahg1rpY_HxX21pZ8nzg= TajUqUAaM1OSmGYGok$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 36697872 36987868 37737820 38147785 38327755 38397736
38387697 38317660 38037629 37427615 37097610 36817621
36597642 36467681 36377712 36357750 36367791 36427824
36547852 36697872=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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