ACUS11 KWNS 191926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191925=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-192130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1721
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Parts of western/central Nebraska...northwest
Kansas...and far northeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 191925Z - 192130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Monitoring the area for increasing severe-storm potential
this afternoon. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple
tornadoes will all be possible. A watch will likely be issued for
parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery and radar data
show increasingly agitated boundary-layer cumulus and first signs of
convective initiation within a zone of differential heating along a
composite outflow-surface front in west-central NE. While weak
large-scale forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on timing/evolution
of convection this afternoon, continued heating amid rich
boundary-layer moisture (lower 70s dewpoints) should support
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along the outflow
boundary and possibly farther west over the High Plains. A
long/mostly straight hodograph (around 50-60 kt of effective shear)
and strongly unstable air mass should initially support splitting
supercells with a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts.
However, a strengthening low-level jet and increasing SRH will also
favor an increasing tornado risk into this evening. A watch will
likely be needed for parts of the area this afternoon.

..Weinman/Smith.. 07/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6nQL7xCjhBbapwZi4mf1aRX6YhEqmphRlHS4IWvGpYQfn9bB4LGnRI51qzeHn_C41xACPitdg= XmgXXlp4mxpREAoQ-o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 39610082 39830171 40310221 41250250 42210223 42670177
42800112 42790013 42629943 42119899 41389893 40069926
39649981 39610082=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)