1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1717

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 19 06:54:58 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 190654
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 190654=20
    IAZ000-WIZ000-190830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1717
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0154 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

    Areas affected...much of northern...central...and eastern Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 190654Z - 190830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A downstream severe thunderstorm watch is possible if a
    more organized storm cluster can develop.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across southern Minnesota has
    started to show some strengthening over the past hour. The
    environment downstream of this activity is still mostly uncapped
    with 1500 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 35-40 knots of effective shear.
    Continued upscale growth along the synoptic boundary from southern
    Minnesota into northwest Iowa is expected. This may result in a more
    organized damaging wind threat persisting beyond 08Z and east of the
    current severe thunderstorm watch. This solution is supported by the
    HRRR/RRFS with more robust convection between 08Z and 12Z across northern/eastern Iowa. Convective trends will continue to be
    monitored and if a more organized/bowing lie segment develops, a
    downstream severe thunderstorm watch may need to be issued.

    ..Bentley/Gleason.. 07/19/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9cTBQScGoHAecIH9rjooDX1iJgSOd29g8fBwuuWg1iI78Vg5Fj5-BQ-m-7zMkn9RqvkfrIxX4= kajfzRSlyMZUHlH274$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 41269208 41619327 42029483 42619590 43269609 43459590
    43499450 43479300 43319166 42639084 42229055 41759071
    41409111 41259185 41269208=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)