ACUS11 KWNS 190019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190019=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-190215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1714
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...North-central Nebraska into south-central South
Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 190019Z - 190215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Though storm coverage is uncertain, some increase in
severe potential is anticipated in parts of north-central Nebraska
over the next few hours. A watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...Signs of convective development are evident on visible
satellite near a weak surface low in north-central Nebraska. Some
high-based activity is also present farther southwest near North
Platte. Strong buoyancy has developed in central Nebraska where
temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 80s F. Effective shear
of 35-40 kts would support organized storms/supercells capable of
mainly large hail and severe wind gusts. Temperatures aloft are
warmer with southern extent which is contributing to slow
development and uncertain storm coverage. However, a modest increase
the low-level jet may help initiate additional storms by mid/late
evening.

..Wendt/Hart.. 07/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-VmGJxFmWPwHom8T36U4-CwJT5feAYk2yW4lnpB8OIladjYEALECtYxxx6MgzS73nKrRwDwnN= R6gIwOmkWS4Vsk09KE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 41710169 42870017 43349943 43239804 42779784 42019903
41789973 41490057 41500173 41710169=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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