ACUS11 KWNS 182207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182207=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-190000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1710
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern Wyoming...far southwest
South Dakota...Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 182207Z - 190000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells will pose some risk of large hail and
isolated severe wind gusts. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Heating of a modestly moist airmass up against the
terrain with aid from a subtle shortwave trough in the northern
Great Basin has promoted isolated supercell development from central
into eastern Wyoming. As storms move eastward late this afternoon,
they will encounter greater surface moisture, particularly the
activity in east-central Wyoming. Effective shear of 30-40 kts and
steep mid-level lapse rates will favor large hail production.
Isolated severe winds are also possible given the steep low-level
lapse rates and somewhat dry boundary layer. MLCIN does increase
into the adjacent Plains. The spatial extent of severe activity will
likely be limited by this factor.

..Wendt.. 07/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-8qNP_b_Vbntq3DlrVMJwZYrhcNZSNiTKM1hJRterbvLUPoX3YVfOIrXUxXfoAaUz7GFL1C_s= PilrDFZ6tC7MVjB6yU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON 42050503 43310714 43640771 43760828 43910889 43970895
44270897 44490864 44570767 44310628 44150478 43060298
42490287 41900308 41700338 42050503=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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