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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1708

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 18 17:10:10 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 181709
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181708=20
    KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-181915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1708
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1208 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

    Areas affected...Northern Tennessee into central eastern Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 181708Z - 181915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase through late
    afternoon across north-central Tennessee into central eastern
    Kentucky, but weak wind shear should limit overall
    longevity/intensity of storms. However, a few instances of damaging
    wind appear possible.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is well underway across
    central KY and north-central TN along and south of a diffuse
    stationary frontal zone. Continued daytime heating and weak ascent
    across the region will promote an increase in thunderstorm coverage
    through late afternoon. Despite very moist/buoyant conditions
    (MLCAPE is already approaching 3000 J/kg), modest mid-level winds
    will limit the overall kinematic environment and the potential for
    organized convection and a more robust severe threat. Because of
    this, watch issuance is not expected; however, theta-e deficits on
    the order of 25-30 K along with PWAT values around 1.8 to 2.0 inches
    should promote strong water-loaded downdrafts and the potential for damaging/severe downburst winds with the deeper convective cores.
    The potential for sporadic damaging winds should increase in tandem
    with the coverage of disorganized multicells.

    ..Moore/Smith.. 07/18/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6vJdL1Nv3KyFjCzYgKi_E8osjlrRZ2v8KjSjiKDvlk6SJsSl3S6a55DA5NfJdkRqycHL8P_cO= TO7wDh1lVWGhZt3pXg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

    LAT...LON 38068373 37918319 37548293 37048288 36638304 36288345
    36008404 35758497 35758578 35768635 35848685 36168723
    36518749 36928755 37168748 37428723 37648640 38018448
    38068373=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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