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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1706

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 18 06:02:08 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 180601
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180601=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-180730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1706
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0101 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

    Areas affected...southeast Montana...far northeast Wyoming...and
    northwest South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 180601Z - 180730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong to isolated severe elevated supercells are
    possible early this morning.

    DISCUSSION...Earlier storm activity across Montana has mostly
    weakened below severe limits. However, as the nocturnal low-level
    jet strengthens across the northern Plains, additional storms will
    develop. Early radar echos across far southeast Montana and far
    southwest North Dakota are likely the beginning of the overnight
    elevated storm threat. Sampling of the low-level jet is somewhat
    meager, but at least some evidence of it strengthening can be seen
    on the KBIS VWP. Weak to moderate instability southwest of a frontal
    zone will support robust updraft development. Strong effective shear
    (50 to 60 knots) will support the potential for supercells with some
    hail threat (given moderately steep mid-level lapse rates from the
    00Z KUNR VWP). Overall a lack of greater instability along the
    frontal zone (where storms are anticipated) should limit the overall
    threat. A few strong to isolated severe supercells with some large
    hail are possible, but the magnitude and areal extent should remain
    too low to warrant a watch.

    ..Bentley/Gleason.. 07/18/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_qUTsGD3ZEk7MAzibDPYDr7jLWUDn1v7hqMqxMInEqR5KaTnqGqJ0FsrxRpCWSe8iZcyY9g04= SDSi9e3KyABqsF1asg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

    LAT...LON 45720540 45930464 45980405 45930296 45760157 45750149
    45100065 44490111 44390281 44570437 44770504 45070537
    45720540=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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