1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1691

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 16 21:51:00 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 162150
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162149=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-162315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1691
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0449 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

    Areas affected...Northern Missouri into extreme northeast Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 162149Z - 162315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along a
    stalled boundary, with the potential for isolated strong-severe
    gusts and marginally severe hail. Limited magnitude and duration of
    the threat suggests that a watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is underway immediately east
    of Kansas City, with other deepening cumulus along a stalled
    boundary near I-70. Surface temperatures in the low 90s with
    dewpoints in the low-mid 70s have largely eliminated convective
    inhibition and additional thunderstorm development is probable along
    the boundary/convergence zone the next couple of hours. This
    corridor is along the southern fringe of 25-30 kt midlevel flow, and
    deep-layer vertical shear is likewise modest and largely confined to
    the immediate cool side of the boundary. Still, large buoyancy
    (MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg) will support strong updrafts, while precipitation loading and downdraft potential will support the
    potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts. The overall
    severe threat is expected to remain marginal given limited storm organization/duration, and a watch appears unlikely.

    ..Thompson/Hart.. 07/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-MDW0yrt9GRI8is39Zb6YVdmBiCMGd5PyQmGQM5VfDYVBfPDXoVOiJRQ9-XW-ekSnQ_srVBE1= iNyotD0FHDfNtBx31c$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 39039196 39159282 39169356 39139451 38979628 39009667
    39279674 39429639 39619492 39689425 39689336 39649291
    39579231 39529216 39449195 39279181 39039196=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)